# Gaussian Mean Field Variational Inference can Overestimate Predictive Variance

ORID `RG7maF4bGu` · **claim-faithful** repair 2026-07-27T19:05:57.598836+00:00

Paper-style claim pages with **inline numbers** and linked `evidence/` artifacts.

## Claims

- [Claim 1: 01-mfvi-underestimates-posterior-variance-parameter](./01-mfvi-underestimates-posterior-variance-parameter/) — VERIFIED (2/2)
- [Claim 2: 02-calibration-constraint-forcing-mfvi-simultaneous](./02-calibration-constraint-forcing-mfvi-simultaneous/) — VERIFIED (2/2)
- [Claim 3: 03-pathological-rank-1-training-data-subspace-scena](./03-pathological-rank-1-training-data-subspace-scena/) — VERIFIED (2/2)
- [Claim 4: 04-temperature-scaled-posteriors-cold-posteriors-co](./04-temperature-scaled-posteriors-cold-posteriors-co/) — VERIFIED (2/2)
- [Claim 5: 05-experiments-basis-function-regression-uci](./05-experiments-basis-function-regression-uci/) — VERIFIED (2/2)
- [Conclusion](./conclusion/)

## Artifacts

- [`evidence/claim_1.json`](../evidence/claim_1.json)
- [`evidence/claim_2.json`](../evidence/claim_2.json)
- [`evidence/claim_3.json`](../evidence/claim_3.json)
- [`evidence/claim_4.json`](../evidence/claim_4.json)
- [`evidence/claim_5.json`](../evidence/claim_5.json)